Measurement issues with bringing international aviation into the UK’s national carbon budget
As the UK brings international aviation into its national carbon targets, could the way that gets measured lead to unintended consequences?
Predicting country classifications for reopening UK travel
When outbound leisure travel resumes from the UK, which countries will be rated green, amber and red? I've had a stab at a prediction based on the key factors the government says it will use.
UK government deals another blow to the travel industry
The "Global Travel Taskforce" has just announced how the government intends to approach reopening international travel from the UK. We were hoping for clarity for travellers and a road-map to recovery for the industry. That is not what we got.
More state funds for Air France as pandemic drags on
Air France - KLM has announced new plans to try and plug the massive hole in its balance sheet caused by the pandemic. Once again, the French State is taking centre stage.
UK Government continues its “wait and see” policy on international travel
The UK government had promised some further news on the timing for lifting the ban on overseas travel at today's COVID press conference. What did we hear?
Will the Brits get an overseas break this summer?
Millions of Brits are anxious to get back to their overseas holidays this summer and are hoping that the UK’s successful vaccination rollout will enable them to do so. What are the chances they will be allowed to get away for some sun and sand?
Airline pricing strategies for the summer restart
What do the current prices on offer for August tell us about UK airline strategies for the hoped for summer restart in travel?
Record losses for 2020 at IAG
IAG reported record losses for its 2020 financial year. How did its figures stack up against other European airlines and what are the prospects for 2021?
Pandemic dilemmas for UK policy makers
The UK government is due to set out its plans for the “gradual and phased” route out of lockdown in just over a week. I've modelled the impact of the various policy options and what they might mean for the travel industry.
Virus variants cast doubt on prospects for a vaccine-led recovery in 2021
Fear of new virus variants has triggered an avalanche of new travel restrictions in the UK. Good progress on vaccinations should enable the lifting of lockdown restrictions, but can it also enable overseas travel to resume?
Digging around in Ryanair’s Q3 results
This week Ryanair reported record pre-tax losses of €345m for the December 2020 quarter. Guidance for the March 2021 quarter suggests that will be even worse. Figures buried deep within the balance sheet also revealed some very interesting insights about their recent financial dealings with Boeing.
easyJet’s miserable end to 2020
easyJet announced record-breaking pre-tax losses of £423m for the last quarter of 2020 as Europe was engulfed by the second wave of the pandemic. Next quarter looks even worse. I took a look at the results.
UK pandemic modelling, an update
Nine days is a long time when it comes to pandemics. I’ve updated my UK forecasting model with improved assumptions on the vaccine rollout and immunity, and also looked at the impact of different policies for the relaxation of restrictions.
Norwegian shuts down its long-haul operations. What went wrong?
Norwegian is shutting down its long-haul operations and will now focus only on short-haul. At the peak, they flew more seats to New York than British Airways. What went wrong?
Virgin Atlantic finally publishes its 2019 accounts
At long last Virgin Atlantic have published their 2019 accounts. What do they show about the financial position of the airline going into the crisis, and what do they reveal about their plans to survive it?
Winter-sun destinations drive long-haul uptick at Heathrow in December
December passenger statistics for Heathrow demonstrated strong demand for winter sun destinations, with long-haul performance overtaking short-haul for the first time since the pandemic started.
Modelling the UK pandemic in 2021
With the pandemic “out of control” in the UK, how might things develop over the rest of 2021? I constructed a model and generated some forecasts.
Brexit: what the newly announced deal means for aviation
The full text of the post Brexit UK-EU trade-deal has been announced. What does it mean for aviation?
Another rescue plan for Alitalia, does it stack up?
Another year, another government-funded rescue plan for chronically loss-making Alitalia. This time with a €3 billion price tag. Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera asked me to review the plan and this is what I told them.
Implications of the new virus strain for aviation
A new, more transmissive strain of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been identified in the UK. What are the potential implications for aviation worldwide?