UK Government continues its “wait and see” policy on international travel
Prime Minister Boris Johnson used today’s COVID press conference to confirm that the plan to relax lockdown restrictions was on track and the next stage (“Step 2”) would go ahead on the 12th April.
One of the big topics people wanted to see clarified is when and how the current draconian international travel restrictions would be lifted. If anyone had been expecting any clarity, they were sadly disappointed.
The Prime Minister made reference to a government document that had just been published, which provides updates on several topics, including vaccine passports and international travel. It is far from straightforward to find that document, but I did eventually manage to locate it here.
It says very little to be honest, so I have reproduced the “Global Travel Taskforce” section (paragraphs 19 - 23) here in full with my own observations.
19. Warm words that say nothing
“The Government wants to see a return to non-essential international travel as soon as possible, while still managing the risk from imported cases and variants of concern. The Government hopes people will be able to travel to and from the UK to take a summer holiday this year, but it is still too soon to know what is possible.”
Translation: “We have no idea when travel will resume. Or, if we do, we don’t want to say in case we have to back-track and people blame us for their holiday plans being ruined.”
20. Resumption of international travel is likely to be delayed (i.e. not 17 May)
“The roadmap said that any return to international travel without a reasonable excuse, for example for holidays, would be no earlier than 17 May. Given the state of the pandemic abroad, and the progress of vaccination programmes in other countries, we are not yet in a position to confirm that non-essential international travel can resume from that point. Taking into account the latest situation with variants and the evidence about the efficacy of vaccines against them, we will confirm in advance whether non-essential international travel can resume on 17 May, or whether we will need to wait longer before lifting the outbound travel restriction.”
This confirms that progress on case numbers and vaccination in other countries will be key issues for deciding whether to allow UK citizens to travel overseas. But both of these issues are country specific and the “traffic light” system that we will get to in a minute should be the right way to address these. Are they really saying that they are still uncertain whether any country will have low enough case numbers and have made sufficient progress on its vaccination progress to allow travel to resume anywhere in the world?
So it seems to me that the real issue which will drive a revision of the 17 May date is “the latest situation with variants and the evidence about the efficacy of vaccines against them”. The Taskforce is due to report on 12 April and this paragraph also reiterates that “we will confirm in advance whether travel can resume on 17 May”. So if we don’t get news of any new variants before 12 April, the key issue seems to be what evidence emerges about vaccine efficacy against the variants during the next week. My assumption is that “no news is bad news”, so let us hope that there is a research paper about to be published which will provide reassurance about the efficacy of the current vaccines against the new variants.
I’m not holding my breath.
21. Traffic lights
“When non-essential international travel does return it will do so with a risk-based “traffic light” system. This will add to our current system a new green category with no isolation requirement on return to the UK - although pre-departure and post- arrival tests would still be needed. This new category will accommodate countries where we judge the risk to be lower, based for instance on vaccinations, infection rates, the prevalence of variants of concern, and their genomic sequencing capacity (or access to genomic sequencing). The Global Travel Taskforce will publish its report, setting out more details on this system, later this week.”
No real surprises here. Restrictions will vary by country and will depend on vaccination progress, infection rates and the prevalence of variants of concern. The comment about genomic sequencing capacity is potentially significant though, as very few countries have high levels of genomic sequencing, so that could rule out many countries that pass all the other tests.
It is also striking that even green routes will still require both pre-departure and post-arrival tests. Media reports suggest that three tests will be required (pre-departure, two days after arrival and eight days after arrival). Sounds like a lot of hassle, which may deter some travellers. The big question for me is what kind of test will be required and who will pay for it? The UK government has just announced that all UK citizens will have access to two free lateral flow tests a week. If the post arrival tests can be free lateral flow tests, that will make a big difference.
22. Don’t book summer holidays abroad
“It is too early to say which countries will be on the green list when non-essential international travel resumes. These decisions will be driven by the data and evidence nearer the time, which we cannot predict now. In advance of the resumption of non-essential international travel, we will set out our initial assessment of which countries will fall into which category. Thereafter countries will move between the red, amber and green lists depending on the data. For the moment, the Government advises people not to book summer holidays abroad until the picture is clearer.”
This one will enrage the travel industry. Travel companies have all implemented flexible booking policies to cater for the inevitable uncertainty, but they really want customers to make bookings. That will help their cashflow in the short term. The government telling people not to book will go down like a lead ballon.
23. COVID status certificates will be required for overseas (and inbound) travel
“The vaccination programme could offer a more stable route out of the need for such restrictions - provided we see sufficient efficacy against any variants of concern - which means the role of COVID-status certification is crucial to this work. The current intention is that, when non-essential international travel does resume, the NHS solution will facilitate international travel where certification is required, and we will look to establish arrangements with other countries and international organisations to establish mutual recognition of certificates.”
Again, no surprises here. I have only two comments.
Firstly, this doesn’t mean that proof of vaccination will be required to travel. I’m sure there will be a non-vaccine alternative, probably involving enhanced testing and quarantine.
Secondly, this caveat is noteworthy: “provided we see sufficient efficacy against any variants of concern”. This once again highlights that data on efficacy of existing vaccines against the variants will be a big driver of whether travel will be opened up this summer, or whether the industry will have to wait until modified vaccines have been developed and deployed.
This seems to me to highlight the very real risk of travel remaining highly constrained until much later in 2021.
What to expect on April 12
As I outlined in an earlier post, I think it is quite likely that the May 17 date for the resumption of overseas travel will be delayed. If it isn’t, then the list of “green” countries will be very small and will mainly consist of places that don’t allow UK travellers in and places you’ve never heard of.
However, I do think there is a decent chance that we’ll get good news soon on the reopening of travel to the USA. The objective data could support such a move, particularly the vaccination progress. It would be a good political move in post-Brexit Britain too. Finally, with the possible exception of Spain, it is the most important single country for the UK aviation industry. I’d like to think that might be a factor in government decision-making too. At some point politicians must start to pay attention to all those aviation jobs, surely?
