Implications of the new virus strain for aviation
A new, more transmissive, strain of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been identified in the UK
Countries have scrambled to close their borders to the UK after the government announced that a new, more transmissive, strain of the SARS-CoV-2 virus had been identified spreading rapidly in London and the South East. A growing list of countries have banned flights from the UK. France has even stopped road freight traffic, triggering “no-deal Brexit” contingency plans to be invoked, with Kent being turned into a giant lorry car-park.
The short-term implications for airlines flying to and from the UK are obvious. Air travel was already at extremely low levels in November and December, but there had been something of an uptick in the run up to Christmas. It now looks like the UK aviation industry will be effectively grounded for at least a week or two, whilst other countries assess the situation.
Although this might look like a UK-specific issue for the airline industry, I think there is a risk that flight bans might spread across the world in coming days. Let me explain the background and my thinking on the implications.
What just happened?
A new variant, snappily known as VUI – 202012/01, has been found to be spreading rapidly in London and the South East. It is estimated to be 70% more transmissible than previous strains and is now thought to account for 60% of new infections in London. The confirmation of the higher transmissibility in recent days has triggered something close to a full lock-down in London and the South East, including travel bans to try to slow down the spread to other parts of the UK.
Although the new variant was identified in the UK and probably originated here, that is far from certain. The UK regularly sequences 10% of all SARS-Cov-2 virus samples found in the UK, far more than anywhere else in the world. The fact that it was detected first in the UK may just reflect this. The new variant was first detected in early September in Kent and London. That suggests to me that it could have arrived from Continental Europe through the port of Dover (in Kent), or by rail or air into London.
Whatever, the origins, it is known that a few instances of the new variant have already been found in Denmark, the Netherlands and Australia. VUI - 202012/01 has also had at least two and a half months to spread across the world.
In the next few days, it will become clearer how much the new variant has already spread, and the answer to that question may have big implications for travel across the world.
I think there are a few scenarios as to how this may play out.
Scenario 1: The cat is already out of the bag
It may become rapidly clear that the new variant has already spread widely across the world and banning travel from the UK, or from a handful of other countries, will do nothing to prevent the spread. Governments will just have to adjust to the fact that the virus has just got 70% better at spreading and amend existing containment policies accordingly.
I think this scenario means that lock-downs and travel restrictions are here to stay until vaccination programmes reach critical mass in 2021. That was probably true anyway for many countries, but restrictions will have to be tighter to achieve the same effect now. Some restrictions that might otherwise have been relaxed may now stay in place.
Mandatory pre-travel testing is likely to become a more widespread requirement. But that is now even less likely to result in loosening of quarantine requirements or other restrictions, as hoped for by many in the industry. It will just be an additional requirement.
Scenario 2: Isolate the UK
In this scenario, the world decides that VUI 202012/01 is containable to the UK and acts quickly to try and do so.
This is probably the worst case scenario for UK airlines and for UK citizens wanting to travel. Many countries wish they had acted more quickly to close their borders in the early stages of the pandemic, as New Zealand did. The emergence of the new variant gives them the opportunity not to make the same mistake a second time.
Flight bans and travel restrictions for the UK could remain in place for months, ending only when the attempt to contain the variant is seen to have failed, or when vaccination programmes bring the pandemic under control later in 2021.
Scenario 3: Whack-a-mole
This feels like it might be quite a likely scenario. The scenario starts off looking like the previous scenario, with countries attempting to prevent the new variant arriving from the UK. However, in this scenario it becomes progressively clear that this has failed, and every few days cases of the new variant are confirmed in new countries, which are added to the list of restricted countries. Flight bans spread across the world in an unpredictable fashion.
Over time, this scenario either turns into scenario 1 or escalates to the next scenario.
Scenario 4: Widespread, active suppression of travel
Countries might decide that they can’t take the risk that the new variant has or is already silently spreading in their populations, or could arrive from anywhere. As a precautionary step, they could close down all international arrivals. Saudi Arabia has already taken this step in response to the news of the new strain, initially for a period of a week with an extension to a second week already a possibility.
Countries could also perhaps halt or heavily suppress domestic travel to try to stop, or at least slow down, the spread. With vaccines just around the corner, this could be part of a package of more restrictive measures put in place to help bridge the time until after mass vaccinations have been completed.
This scenario may not be that much worse than the current reality for airlines in many parts of the world. Travel is already pretty dead at the moment in much of Europe, with little prospect of improvement until the Spring. But I could imagine a scenario where domestic flying in the US takes a further big hit, for example.
A cold, dark winter just got darker
Just when we thought 2020 couldn’t get any worse for the industry, of course the virus had another unpleasant surprise in store.
Reassuringly, the experts do not believe the new variant is any more deadly if you catch it. It just spreads more easily. They are also confident that the vaccines should work just as well against the new variant.
Let’s hope the experts are right. The vaccines are needed more desperately than ever now.
