A new travel restrictions framework

Farewell to the much hated traffic light system

As usual, the changes to the UK’s travel restrictions framework which were announced today were heavily leaked to the media in advance. What emerged showed all the signs of a messy compromise between different parts of government. The media “leaks” were almost certainly the result of different factions seeking to use the media to bolster their cause, together with politicians testing possible changes in the court of public opinion before finalising formal policy. We are told they are “following the science”, but it is clear that political science is the thing that is getting the most attention.

So, what did we get?

The green list is gone

The biggest change was the amalgamation of the green and amber lists. I’m not sure what the new “standard” list will be called, but it is best understood as the elimination of the green list and a loosening of the rules for vaccinated travellers.

The abolishment of the green list will make travel harder for unvaccinated travellers from 41 countries, including Romania, Germany, Croatia, Bulgaria, Malta, Switzerland and Canada. They will now need to self-isolate on arrival in the UK for ten days and take an extra “day 8” test. In the three weeks to Sept 1, an average of 64,000 people a week travelled to the UK from green list countries. If 20% of those are not fully vaccinated, that’s about 13,000 people a week for whom the new rules are significantly worse.

Reduced testing for fully vaccinated travellers

Fully vaccinated travellers no longer need to take a pre-departure test at all and their “day 2” arrival test can now be a cheaper lateral-flow device test (LFD), rather than a PCR. They will still need to get a PCR if they test positive on the LFD, but that PCR will be provided free.

This change will eliminate the hassle of organising a pre-departure test in a foreign country and running the risk of being stuck overseas if the test is positive. It also eliminates the cost of that test and replacing the day 2 arrival test with an LFD will also help reduce costs. Travellers will still not be able to use the free NHS tests and need to pay for a commercial test, but LFD tests are typically around half the price of a PCR. Taken together, these changes will help a lot.

Although the elimination of the pre-departure test will happen from October 4th, for some reason the switch to LFDs on arrival will have to wait until the “end of October”. The reason for the delay has not been explained.

The group of travellers benefiting from this change is much larger than the unvaccinated people losing out from the abolition of the green list. Over 300,000 people a week arrive from green and amber list countries and if 80% are fully vaccinated, that is about 250,000 people a week. So the “winners” outweigh the “losers” by 19 to 1.

Fewer countries on the red list

There were rumours that the number of countries on the red list would be halved. That would have meant about 30 countries coming off the list. I argued in this article that there was no logical case for any countries to remain on the red list. On the face of it, we got a very minor adjustment, with only eight countries escaping (Turkey, Pakistan, the Maldives, Egypt, Sri Lanka, Oman, Bangladesh and Kenya). However, whilst only 13% of red list countries escaped, they accounted for 35% of the passenger volume. All the hallmarks of a messy compromise.

Leaving aside Afghanistan, which has had a big jump in arrivals recently for obvious reasons, the most important travel destinations left languishing on the red list are South Africa, Thailand, Montenegro, The Philippines and pretty much the whole of South America. It seems to me that the government continues to be paranoid about variants such as Beta and Gamma, despite the fact that all the evidence shows that these variants are dying out and clearly being outcompeted by Delta. Disagreements about that issue were probably the main reason the reduction in the red list was so much less dramatic than rumoured. I can only hope that common sense will prevail shortly.

The verdict overall

The changes announced today will be welcomed by the travel industry. For most countries and most travellers, it is a big relaxation. It is also a simplification, which helps a lot too. But it is worth remembering that it still leaves the UK with some of the most restrictive and onerous travel rules in the world and a large red list that is very hard to justify based on the facts.

A step forward, but still a long way to go.